Is This Your Hat?
12 years ago
Miscellaneous thoughts on politics, people, math, science and other cool (if sometimes frustrating) stuff from somewhere near my favorite coffee shop.

It was half a century ago, on the night of July 8, 1959, that the first two American soldiers to die in the Vietnam War were slain when guerrillas surrounded and shot up a small mess hall where half a dozen advisers were watching a movie after dinner.So two very important, long-lasting (if you think about the total arc of the space shots), and highly influential events of my childhood have anniversaries in this 8-day period of July.
Today only about 12 percent, or 2.4 million acres, of true old growth forest is left. Nearly all that remains, moreover, is to be found in a crazy quilt of fragmented patches (the result of previous logging, road building, and land divisions) on federal and state lands, with only about a third currently protected in parks and wilderness areas. In the 1980s this remaining primeval forest was being cut at a rate of 70,000 acres a year. If cutting continues at this rate, the unprotected regions of the old growth forest in the Pacific Northwest will be gone in less than twenty-five years.As best as I can tell, that article, written in 1991, is referring to the PNW as a whole. The number for the Oregon Coast Range is much lower; I have seen claims ranging from 2 to 5% original old growth remaining- I'm not finding a good on-line reference though. Extrapolating from the figures in the quote above, we would now have about 4% of our original old growth coverage- even more badly fragmented. However, old growth cutting was curtailed somewhat under Clinton, and I suspect the actual number is somewhat higher.
Looks like our ecosystem may have a fighting chance.Veering between swipes at “indefensible” moves by the Bush administration and pledges to step up noncontroversial timber sales, Mr. Salazar said in a conference call with reporters that he was reinstating a compromise reached 15 years ago to limit logging with the goal of protecting watersheds, trout and salmon fisheries and endangered birds like the spotted owl.
“Today we are taking action to reform Department of Interior and correct mistakes by correcting legal shortcuts the late administration made at the end of its tenure,” Mr. Salazar said.
“Joe the Plumber — you can quote me — is a dumbass. He should stick to plumbing.”
...on 11 June 2009, she found herself the first WHO chief in 41 years to stand before the world and announce that a new virus had reached pandemic proportions. Right up until the last minute, scientists were calling her up and warning her to be careful about raising the threat alert so high — but the strict definition of "pandemic" is a new disease spreading uncontrollably through numerous countries, and on that count her decision has been completely borne out. On 11 June, swine flu had been registered in 74 countries; when we meet in Geneva four weeks later, it has just been confirmed in 140 countries.(...)
Chan's war has arrived with a vengeance. A 2007 WHO report, A Safer Future, estimated that a flu pandemic could affect more than 1.5 bn people, or 25% of the world's population. Could swine flu be that big? "Quite likely. Quite likely. But it probably won't happen in one run. It will probably come back [in two or three waves]."How does she expect it to compare to other pandemics? "In terms of the number of countries affected and the number of people infected, this has got to be the biggest."Bigger than 1918? "If you're talking about mortality then it's different. 1918 is the biggest in terms of mortality. I would not like to make any predictions . . . I hope we don't see the 1918 picture. But we should expect to see more people infected, and more severe cases coming up, including deaths."
Swine flu is probably already much bigger than anyone knows. Ten days ago, only six countries in Africa had reported cases, but as Chan readily admits, this is rather misleading: until the WHO started sending out lab kits in early May, many developing countries had no means of testing for it. Furthermore, modelling suggests that swine flu has an attack rate of 30% — once it enters a country, the likelihood is 30% of citizens will catch it at some point.
I've never seen noctilucent clouds before, but it's been a phenomenon I've watched for for many years. Guess I should have spent some time outside last night; the above was taken by an old friend just a few miles to the west of my current position. Below is the email from SpaceWeather that alerted me to the outbreak, and the gallery where I found the picture.Space Weather News for July 15, 2009
http://spaceweather.com
NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS GO WILD: An intense display of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) lit up the skies of Europe and North America last night. Bright electric-blue tendrils were visible through fireworks during Bastille Day celebrations in France, while the clouds descended as far south as Nebraska in the USA. Sky watchers should be alert for a repeat performance tonight. Observing tips and photos of the July 14th-15th display may be found at these URLs:
Europe: http://spaceweather.com/nlcs/gallery2009_page12.htm
USA: http://spaceweather.com/nlcs/gallery2009_page13.htm
Please visit http://spaceweather.com for updates.
You are subscribed to the Space Weather mailing list, a free service of Spaceweather.com.
New subscribers: To sign up for free space weather alerts, click here: http://spaceweather.com/services/ .
In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close-knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we've discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We've learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.(...)
As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning.(...)
Looking for a way out of this crisis, our people have turned to the Federal Government and found it isolated from the mainstream of our Nation's life. Washington, D.C., has become an island. The gap between our citizens and our Government has never been so wide. The people are looking for honest answers, not easy answers; clear leadership, not false claims and evasiveness and politics as usual.(...)
We are at a turning point in our history. There are two paths to choose. One is a path I've warned about tonight, the path that leads to fragmentation and self-interest. Down that road lies a mistaken idea of freedom, the right to grasp for ourselves some advantage over others. That path would be one of constant conflict between narrow interests ending in chaos and immobility. It is a certain route to failure.All the traditions of our past, all the lessons of our heritage, all the promises of our future point to another path, the path of common purpose and the restoration of American values. That path leads to true freedom for our Nation and ourselves. We can take the first steps down that path as we begin to solve our energy problem.
The question we have to ask ourselves is, are we going to accept that? As I've noted on numerous occasions (here's one example; you can find others by using the blog search bar at the top with the term "torture"), I'm convinced that actions taken under the previous administration constitute violations of international law- violations of laws they were constitutionally required to enforce. I have watched with growing dismay as the Obama administration, in both word and deed, indicated that they were determined to look forward and ignore the past. There has been increasing pressure from the serfs and peasants of this country to demand an investigation, but given the actual power of serfs and peasants, I have been unsurprised that Obama and crew have kept the forward blinders firmly in place.
Stunningly beautiful photo from today's APOD... Anak Krakatau erupting beneath a night sky. If you look carefully, you can figure out almost exactly what direction the camera was pointed. Click the pic for bigger, see here for full size, and visit the first link for a full description and a hint on the puzzle.
My brother Clark and I were among the first to cross the new bridge on Richland Avenue, almost as soon as the concrete deck was set, months before the official opening.A likely succession in North Korea could unleash instability, or it could result in a much more belligerent or isolated military regime. The transfer of power after Kim Jong-il is far less clear than when his father died in 1994.An isolated North Korea under sanctions will be more, not less, likely to sell weapons or technology for hard currency. Given that its clients have been in the Middle East and South Asia, this is likely to create further problems in highly insecure areas.
It's getting late and it's been a traumatic day. I'm going to go home and back up my entire hard drive. See you in the funnies.