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Miscellaneous thoughts on politics, people, math, science and other cool (if sometimes frustrating) stuff from somewhere near my favorite coffee shop.
Without knowing the flow’s true magnitude, how can anyone judge the success of any approach? Without determining how much oil is beneath the ocean’s surface and how much is floating toward land, how can we best direct response efforts?An op-ed in today's NYT makes a number of points I've been trying to emphasize, but more clearly and completely than I have managed.
On Thursday, BP was finally forced to acknowledge that far more oil is escaping from its damaged well into the Gulf of Mexico than the oft-repeated estimate of 5,000 barrels per day. Nonetheless, the company still insists that an accurate measurement of the spill rate is neither necessary, as it would do nothing to alter their response efforts, nor is it possible with existing science.Go and read. BP must not be allowed to attempt to sweep this under the rug any further; they've been getting away with just that for a month now. As I've said before, what we can see, even with the slick now washing ashore, and having heart-breaking impacts on people and wildlife, is merely the tip of this still mostly hidden disaster.
It is our view that accurate, continuously updated measurements are not only possible, but absolutely essential if we are to respond effectively to this and future disasters. That is why we are conducting satellite image analysis and image-based fluid-flow analysis to provide an independent assessment of the oil spill.
Steve Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University, earlier this month made simple calculations from a video BP released on May 12 and came up with a flow of 70,000 barrels a day, NPR reported last week. Werely on Wednesday told a House Commerce and Energy Committee subcommittee that his calculations of two leaks that show up on videos BP released on Tuesday showed 70,000 barrels from one leak and 25,000 from the other.Missed it by that much. I would reiterate, this is after installing the diversionary pipe that BP is so proudly publicizing today. While they were saying Sunday and Monday that it would capture as much as 1000 barrels per day, they now claim that they're recovering 2000 barrels per day. So it worked. Now about that other 93,000 barrels per day, BP?
He said the calculation could be off by 20 percent — meaning the spill could range from between 76,000 to 104,000 barrels a day. But Wereley said he would need to see videos that were not compressed and showed the flow over a longer period so that it would be possible to get a better calculation of the mix of oil and gas from the wellhead.
Spirit Lake, Pumice Plain, and phreatic explosions, soon after the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. USGS Photograph taken on May 29, 1980, by Dan Dzurision.These craters were the result of water seeping into the still-hot debris, and causing steam explosions. But I remember the news stations reporting "on-going eruptions" in the area where Spirit Lake had been. No one was even sure if the lake still existed. Here's the front page of "The Paper of Record" on that stunned Monday morning:
The earlier ash and steam eruptions this year were dwarfed today, but it is not clear whether lava was being expelled in the absence of a lava eruption, the major worries were drifting ash, which is hazardous to crops, water supplies and health; forest fires, and flash floods resulting from melting glaciers.Ash is a form of lava, and the statement, "it is not clear whether lava was being expelled in the absence of a lava eruption," is just bizarre to me. If there is an "absence of a lava eruption," it seems it would be a fair assumption lava isn't being expelled. But ash was being expelled, to the tune of nearly a third of a cubic mile. Not to be too mean about it, but this reporter didn't really have a clue. Still, I think the article, from a perspective of 30 years later, does a fine job of illustrating the confusion surrounding the situation in the days immediately following the eruption.
Teresa Fiest, 16, gives a helping hand to Oregonian reporter Susan Hobart as the two make their way slowly to the home of Fiest’s brother-in-law. Photo credit: The OregonianSo while I and many others marked yesterday as "the anniversary" of this event, the fact is that for many, "the event" would last for days, even weeks. And for 57, the event was the last thing they knew.
WILLIAMS: But I think it will damage the environment in the gulf and damage tourism and damage fishing. I don't think there's any question this is in excess of anything we've previously asked the ocean to absorb.My comment on the FB post was "If the oil concentration in those plumes is 1% of 1% (1/10,000) there's 20 Exxon Valdez' worth in just one of them. How 'bout we give Brit some swim fins and a weight?"
HUME: We'll see if it is. We'll see if it is. The ocean absorbs a lot, Juan, an awful lot. The ocean absorbs a lot.WILLIAMS: I think Rush Limbaugh went down this road, "The ocean can handle it." I think we have to take some responsibility for the environment and be responsible to people who live in the area, vacation in that area, fish in that area. It's just wrong to think, "You know what? Dump it on the ocean and let the ocean handle it."
HUME: Who said that? Who is saying that? No one's making that argument.
GeoDay is a graduate student led research conference at which students are encouraged to showcase their thesis research. Please feel free to stop in anytime to listen to a student presentation. Light snacks and drinks will be provided. See below the the presentation schedule and presentation abstracts.
Schedule
(Click on session title for abstract)
9:00-9:20 - Joe Haxel
The deep ocean ambient sound field - global, regional and local perspectives
9:20-9:40 - Andrew McFadden
Sediment transport rates and surface erosion mechanisms at an oak savanna restoration site in the Willamette National Forest, Oregon
9:40-10:00 - Kendra Hatcher
Long-term trends in streamflow in large basins of western Oregon: disentangling climate change effects and land use legacies
10:00-10:20 - Mousa Diabat
10:20-10:40 - Richardo Gonzalez
Predicting resazurin and Resorufin sorption effects
10:40-11:00- Chris Longton
11:00-11:20 - Julia Cohen
Trace element geochemistry of hydrothermal chlorite and sericite at Yerington, Nevada: developing new methods of exploration for porphyry copper deposits
11:30-1:00 - Lunch and Award Ceremony
1:00-1:20 - Stephanie Grocke
Volatile influence on eruption style at large silicic caldera systems: a melt inclusion study
1:20-1:40 - Casey Tierney
Understanding continental magmatic systems: insights from accessory minerals in lavas from the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex
1:40-2:00 - David Bucklin
Conservation effectiveness in a dynamic colonization zone: forest clearance in and around Amboró National Park and Integrated Management Natural Area, Bolivia
2:00-2:20 - Wendy Kelly
Geology interpretive manual for Shenandoah National Park: educating the public on the four-dimensional aspects of an ancient continental collision zone
2:20-2:40 - Jennifer Cunningham
The testing and derivation of experssions for clinopyroxene/melt trace-element partitioning through the application of new database materials
2:40-3:00 - Tom Hanlon
The impact of the mining legacy in a water scarce South Africa: an environmental security perspective
3:00-3:20 - Bridget Brown
Water governance capacity: using national laws and policies as a baseline assessment - a case study of Jordan
Let's convert to feet and figure the volume of that plume. Rounding off a little, that is 52,800' x 15,800' x 300' = 250,272,000,000 cubic feet. There are 7.48 gallons in a cubic foot. If that plume were comprised of 100% oil, that would be 1,872,034,000,000 gallons of oil, or nearly two trillion gallons in that one plume.The only thing I would add is that this is one plume (albeit the largest observed, so far) of at least a few that have been identified. It does not include oil that may be still on the sea floor, nor oil on the surface. There also may be plumes that haven't been discovered and identified yet. BP is still resisting getting good data on the flow rate, saying that it is irrelevant to the problem at hand, getting the leak halted. Yeah, whatever.
Even if that plume were comprised of just 0.1% oil by volume, that would still mean that this oil spill is approaching two billion gallons of oil, which is over two hundred times more oil than the Exxon Valdez spill. And that volume of oil would assume that the plume contains all of the oil spilled, which it does not.
At the oil-leak site, a tube five-feet long and four inches in diameter was pushed into a leaking riser that’s 21 inches in diameter _ the source of most of the spill. The inserted tube has three large flexible rubber diaphragms to keep it in the riser and block oil and water from mixing; however, BP officials said the riser is still leaking some oil.The bad news is that evidence is mounting that the actual amount that has been leaking over the last three weeks is at least 10 times larger than the official estimate of 5000 barrels- 210,000 gallons- per day. I've seen estimates as high as 80K (again, per day). How could the estimates be that far off? That brings me to another little bit of "good" news.
Dr. Joye said the oxygen had already dropped 30 percent near some of the plumes in the month that the broken oil well had been flowing. “If you keep those kinds of rates up, you could draw the oxygen down to very low levels that are dangerous to animals in a couple of months,” she said Saturday. “That is alarming.”(...)
Dr. Joye said the findings about declining oxygen levels were especially worrisome, since oxygen is so slow to move from the surface of the ocean to the bottom. She suspects that oil-eating bacteria are consuming the oxygen at a feverish clip as they work to break down the plumes.I commented to someone earlier that I don't think you could have come up with a more effective plan to simply kill the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the increasing number of oil-soaked animals being photographed, I don't even think we've seen the tip of this iceberg.