This Could get Ugly

Hurricane Gustav moving away from Haiti, toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.

And New Orleans? (Reuters- larger image at link)

So Fay just dumped 2-3 feet on my brother and his family. If there had been serious problems I would have heard. Then I hear there's a storm headed toward Haiti- it makes a blip on my radar. It hits Haiti, and this morning I see this:

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Gustav drifted away from Haiti
and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday after killing 22 people and was set to
become a dangerously powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico oil fields.

I had no idea it was that strong... and that bit about threatening oil fields is not good. Then as the day goes on, I start seeing more. And More.

"A powerful storm in the Gulf of Mexico could force shutdowns on the offshore
rigs that account for a quarter of U.S. crude production and much of its natural
gas."

This is really not good.

Current projections have God's Staff barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico, then
straight on towards New Orleans, Louisiana.

The fellow with the preceding quote, a meteorology blogger, explains that "Gustav" means "Staff of the Gods." If the storm passes to the west of New Orleans, he says, "You're looking at 2005, only worse."

From the NOAA National Hurricane Center- I think this link may lead to the latest update. If not, you shouldn't have trouble finding it. Full-size version of above image here.

I have come to have some respect for Reuters (note that the first story I linked, the first I saw was also from this feed:

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) "Three years after Hurricane Katrina slammed into the
Louisiana coast, New Orleans residents on Wednesday again faced the prospect of
an evacuation as Tropical Storm Gustav loomed."

I'm not a big fan of Anderson Cooper (I think most of the TV news reporters are preening egotists: "The most important news on television! Me!'), but you'd have to be a complete ding-a-ling to miss the political implications here: "On Friday, all eyes might turn to McCain and the Republican convention. OR… they might turn to Hurricane Gustav." Even science people are looking at the political aspect. "As New Orleans prepares to evacuate three years to the day that Hurricane Katrina hit, Republicans should not be happy."

And of course the political bloggers are all over it:

Lawyers Guns and Money: "2 PM Monday is when the GOP convention is scheduled to be kicking off, so this might possibly be taken as evidence that Mother Nature has a mordant sense of humor."

Just an Earth-Bound Misfit: "The Navy's forecast for Hurricane Gustav has it drawing a bead on New Orleans."

The weather services are all over it too. These are on accuweather right now:

Gustav Revs Up
Major Gulf Hurricane
Threat of a Direct Hit on the United States
Energy Futures up on Gustav Worries
Potential Storm Impact on the United States

And so on. Three years to the day after Katrina devastated the city, New Orleans will be making the final decision on whether to order another evacuation. Or an evacuation may have already started. And of course, it may miss the city completely. As you can see from the map above, the center has quite a wide projection at this point: from the Eastern Florida panhandle to the Texas-Louisiana Border. Landfall will most likely be Monday afternoon or evening. There's plenty of time for things to change.

But here's one more thing to keep in mind: we're at basically the hottest part of the summer, and more to the point, the highest water temperatures. And high water temps are what power hurricanes. The following map, from Weather Underground, shows an interpretive water temperature map based on buoy data. (I was under the impression that satellite IR measurements were quicker, cheaper and more accurate, but I couldn't find that info; I may have been mistaken there.) Note that temperatures out in the central Gulf are up near 90; mid to upper 80's in the coastal Delta region, mid to lower 80's near the base of the Florida Panhandle. This suggests if Gustav runs out through the middle of the Gulf, it could power up very rapidly, and maintain the high energy if comes on shore close to or west of New Orleans. (See Weather Moose- also linked above- for an explanation for why a miss to the west of New Orleans could be much worse than a direct hit) On the other hand, while poor Florida does not need more wind and rain, swinging along a more eastward path, skirting the western Florida coast for example, probably means it would not be as strong when it finally makes landfall.

Now I for one do not think that this administration has been held accountable in any reasonable way for it's dereliction during and after Katrina. And I think McCain got an inexcusable pass from the MSM when he claimed he had voted for every Katrina relief and reconstruction bill that had come up. In fact, he had not voted for any of them. I dread that we are about to learn first hand that little or nothing has been accomplished during the last three years to prepare us for the next blow, come all too soon.

I am saddened beyond description by the possibility that the final silver bullet to McCain's were-dog of a campaign is a human tragedy of the same magnitude that at last woke most Americans to the incompetence of our current deciders.

Irony alert: McCain's birthday is Friday, maybe +/- a day. He was having a photo-op with his buddy Shrub and a cake as hundreds of his fellow citizens, "my friends," were gasping and sputtering their final breaths. Three years later, almost to the day, there's a good chance that hundreds more of his "friends" will be respiring their last as he cheerfully cuts his birthday cake in front of adoring cameras, and prepares to accept a nomination for which he was never qualified, and clearly, at this point in time, is not fit.

"Heh heh! Sucks to be you!"