Are We Going to Get Winter This Winter?

Apparently, yes. We've been having unsually dry warm days this fall, and unusually crisp cold nights. Most of Oregon's ski areas aren't open yet- they generally open Thanksgiving week. We have had very little snow in the mountains, 15% of the normal snowpack, and precious little rain down here in the valley.

That's going to change over the next couple of days. Every weather forecast is calling for snow here on Saturday and Sunday- an inch or two on the valley floor, 12-18 inches in the mountains. We rarely actually get accumulating snow here in Corvallis, and I'm of the "I believe snow forecasts when the ground is white," school of thought. But the fact that every forecast is saying "snow" has me pretty excited.

We're at about 250 feet elevation here, barely above sea level. The combination of proximity to the ocean and latent heat of condensation as rain falls over the coast range means our winters are very mild. What we get most often is rain falling through cold air trapped in the valley, then freezing when it hits the ground. Those events sometimes are sometimes proceded by a dusting of snow- so you end up with a quarter inch of snow covered by a quarter inch to an inch of solid ice. Makes for great driving conditions. I will say that unlike the bystanders in this video clip, I would have been found nowhere near the street.

(Portland, Oregon, January 2007)

What the reports are not consistent on is night temperatures; most are calling for lows around 30, which is consistent with typical cloudy, precipitating winter weather. But the National Weather Service is looking at a mass of cold air coming down out of Nunavut and is predicting lows in the teens. That is weather without which I would happily do.